How to Estimate Forecasting Quality: A System-Motivated Derivation of Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) and Other Similar Characteristics
نویسندگان
چکیده
When comparing how well different algorithms forecast time series, researchers use an average value of the ratio |x− y| (|x|+ |y|)/2 , known as the Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE). In this paper, we provide a system-motivated explanation for this formula. We also explain how this formula explains the use of geometric mean to combine different forecasts.
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